COP21 : analyse des INDC pour projeter les émissions de GES en 2020 et 2030

Description de la mission

Analyse les prises de positions officielles des pays en terme de réduction des gaz à effet de serre (INDC).

Dans le but de voir s'il est possible de tracer la courbe des émissions globales sur la période 2020-2030.

== INDC project for the The Shift Project. Wanna help?

Dear Shift supporters

as you have expressed a general interest to collaborate with our think tank, here you get a call to your capabilities to participate in an an urgent project in preparation of COP21. One ore two volunteers should be enough (but in the latter case very good coordination and harmonisation of methodologies will be needed) Here is the project, named "INDC".

Please find all the documents mentioned later in this email at the foollowing Dropbox folder

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/kjotpni0vwckiiq/AADW_FZ9IKYW1HUWjoWf7jdda?dl=0

BACKGROUND: 1) In preparation of COP21, all participating countries have been invitied to submit their national GHG reduction targets ideally for the years 2025 and 2030. Depending on the country, these targets are sometimes expressed against a past year or against a business as usual scenario (BAU) previously developed for the target year. These targets and the commitment to get there are called Intentional National Determined Contributions (INDC) You can find the full texts of the INDCs submitted per country as 1st of October 2015 in the dropbox in the file all__parties_indc (86% of expected submissions) A summary matrix is available in the .xls file "RCPs Vs INDCs", sheet Policies_orig.

2) IPCC in their last Fifth Assessement Report (AR5) has presented 4 different GHG emissions scenarios named

RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5

according to 4 different values of Radiative Forcing (google it;) and corresponding temperatures, the trends are visible here

Climat et hydrocarbures fossiles : penser les avenirs probables n’est pas chose aisée… - Adrastia

image

Climat et hydrocarbures fossiles : penser les avenirs pr... L'avenir étant pour le moins incertain, comment envisager Visualizza su adrastia.org

Anteprima per Yahoo

In the file "RCPs Vs INDCs" I have downloaded the raw data behind the scenarios, converted them into Gt of CO2eq emissions (it includes CO2, CH4 qnd N2O) and you can find the charted results in the tab "RCPs INDCs CO2 eq".

GOAL:

the goal is estimating on the basis of the available INDCs the GHG emission reduction for the years 2025 and 2030 and chart the result together with the ' RCPs scenarios to see how they compare; i.e. if the INDCs are a sufficient commitement to tackle climate change.

CHALLENGE:

first, when targets are stated against a BAU scenario, it needs to be understood on a country basis what exact scenario was referenced. Then, you will need to focus on the subset of the most relevant countries in terms of GHG emissions (tab CO2 History) because there will be no time to process all of them. Target the first major 10 emitters. In case some of these had not submitted yet their INDC, please apply a BAU scenario for years 2025 and 2030.

Please not as a reference that the expected INDC based GHG emissions reduction was already estimatedd by other bodies and amounts to 55.2 Gt CO2eq for year 2025 and to 56.7 GtCO2eq for year 2030. But we want to recalculate those values ourselves in order to have a full grasp of assumptions and methodology.

Please email me or call me 0638930776 for questions or talk to Zeynep

Enjoy

Commanditaire

Ing. Diego Palma <palma_diego@yahoo.it> Zeynep Kahraman <zeynep.kahraman@theshiftproject.org>